research
Senior Economist (Development Research Group, Trade and International Integration, World Bank)
Research Interests: Trade Policy, Jobs, Labor Mobility, Migration, Quantitative Methods
Fields: International Trade, Labor and Development Economics
Link to my World Bank researcher website
Recent Columns
1. Estimating the true cost of war: The conflict in Eastern Ukraine (2014-2019) [Vox EU]
(joint with Nicolas Gomez-Parra and Harun Onder), 2022.
2. War-induced food price inflation imperils the poor [Vox EU]
(joint with Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), 2022.
3. Inequality and trade: Simulation evidence for 54 developing nations [Vox EU]
(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), 2020.
4. Do robots threaten North-South trade and welfare? [Vox Dev]
(joint with Paulo Bastos and Bob Rijkers), 2019.
Papers
Work in Progress
1. Trade, Jobs and Worker Welfare
(joint with Paulo Bastos and Eunhee Lee)
2. Crops, Conflict and Climate Change
(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers)
(joint with Nicolas Gomez-Parra and Harun Onder)
Trade/Labor
1. Patterns of Labor Market Adjustment to Trade Shocks with Imperfect Capital Mobility
(joint with Irene Brambilla and Guido Porto) Economic Journal, 2022.
2. Trade, Informal Employment and Labor Adjustment Costs
(joint with J. Arias, D. Lederman, and D. Rojas) Journal of Development Economics, 2018.
3. Trade Policy and Wage Inequality: A Structural Analysis with Occupational and Sectoral Mobility
(joint with John McLaren) Journal of International Economics, 2015.
4. A Mapping of Mobility Costs in the Developing World
(joint with Daniel Lederman and Guido Porto) Journal of International Economics, 2015.
5. Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach
(joint with Shubham Chaudhuri and John McLaren) American Economic Review, 2010.
6. Delay and Dynamics in Labor Market Adjustments
(joint with Shubham Chaudhuri and John McLaren) Journal of International Economics, 2008.
Trade/Development
(joint with Paulo Bastos and Bob Rijkers), Journal of International Economics, conditionally accepted.
2. Trading-off the Income Gains and the Inequality Costs of Trade Policy
(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), Journal of International Economics, 2019.
3. Household Impacts of Tariffs : Data and Results from Agricultural Trade Protection
(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers), World Bank Economic Review, 2021.
3. Robots and Trade: Implications for Developing Countries
(joint with Paulo Bastos, Alexander Copestake, and Bob Rijkers), in Robots and AI: A New Economic Era (eds. Lili Ing and Gene Grossman), 2023.
Migration
1. Transit Migration: All Roads Lead to America
(joint with Caglar Ozden) Economic Journal, 2018.
2. A Global Assessment of Human Capital Mobility: the Role of non-OECD Destinations
(joint with F. Docquier, C. Ozden and C. Parsons) World Development, 2015.
Macro
1. R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations.
(joint with Panayiotis Pourpourides), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014.
2. Discount Window Borrowing After 2003: The Explicit Reduction in Implicit Costs
(joint with Selva Demiralp) Journal of Banking and Finance, 2010.
(joint with Selva Demiralp) New York Fed's Economic Policy Review, 2010.
Quantitative Methods
1. PPML Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Aggregate Shocks
World Bank Working Paper #6480. (This paper develops a new econometric method we use in other papers)
Work in Hiatus
1. Some Simple Analytics of Trade and Labor Mobility
(joint with S. Chaudhuri and J. McLaren)
2. Does Automation in Rich Countries Hurt Developing Ones? Evidence from the U.S. and Mexico
(joint with Luc Christiaensen and Hernan Winkler)
Books
1. The Inequality Adjusted Gains from Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries, 2022. [amazon link]
(joint with Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers)
2. Exports to Jobs : Boosting the Gains from Trade in South Asia, 2019. [amazon link]
(joint with Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Raymond Robertson and Daniel Samaan) [freely available as a pdf from WB]
3. The Economics of Hosting Refugees : A Host Community Perspective from Turkana, 2017.
(joint with Jennifer Alix-Garcia and Harun Onder) [freely available as a pdf from WB]
Chapters
1. "Robots and TradeImplications for Developing Countries" , 2022
(joint with Paulo Bastos,Alexander Copestake, and Bob Rijkers) in "Robots and AI: A New Economic Era" eds. L.. Ing, G. Grossman